By Fathi Jama
Tensions have escalated following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence. The MOU has sparked significant geopolitical friction and intensified regional rivalries. Somalia has actively opposed the agreement, accusing Ethiopia of infringing on its territorial integrity. This growing rivalry is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, leading to the formation of new regional alliances. Somalia has signed defence agreements with Türkiye and Egypt, both of which have deployed military forces, further complicating the region’s dynamics. These alliances, particularly through the provision of military support and weapons, pose a potential threat to regional security.
Somalia asserts that Somaliland is part of its territory, deeming the agreement unlawful and a violation of its sovereignty. In response, Somalia has intensified its efforts to halt the MOU, which it perceives as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity. In presenting its case to the African Union, the Arab League, IGAD, the East African Community, and the United Nations, Somalia termed the MOU as an “annexation of Somalia’s territory by Ethiopia”. These institutions and states principally endorsed Somalia’s case and some offered mediation with Ethiopia.
In reality, however, Somalia has had no sovereignty over Somaliland since 1991, and this will remain unchanged in the years to come. Somaliland controls its own territorial borders and has achieved notable security and political stability. It has established its own military, currency, and functioning government institutions, which have attracted global attention.
Diplomatic disputes have only worsened following the signing of the MOU, with Somalia labelling the deal null and void and accusing Ethiopia of interfering in its domestic affairs. This led the Federal Republic of Somalia to recall its ambassador from Ethiopia, signalling the start of serious political tensions between the two countries.
Following these developments, Somalia National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh Ali announced that Ethiopian troops would no longer be part of the African Union or other international forces tasked with securing Somalia by 2025. This move is seen as a direct response to Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland. Additionally, Somali Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre warned that Ethiopia would be excluded from the African Union Support Mission in Somalia unless it cancelled the MOU. These actions demonstrate Somalia’s diplomatic efforts to nullify the historic agreement, although achieving this appears increasingly difficult.
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s influence in Somalia remains robust, with Ankara and Mogadishu signing a defence agreement that has led to the deployment of Turkish troops in Somalia’s territorial waters. At the same time, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo and signed a bilateral defence cooperation agreement with Egypt, resulting in Egypt deploying its own troops to Somalia. These developments have further raised tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly between Somalia and Ethiopia.
The leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia have emphasised the importance of living in peace and promoting cooperation with their neighbours. Yet, despite these declarations, tensions between the two nations persist.
As the regional dynamics shift, the Horn of Africa is witnessing the emergence of new geopolitical alliances. Despite Somalia’s diplomatic efforts to block the MOU, Ethiopia and Somaliland continue to pursue its implementation and are moving towards finalising the agreement. The resulting tensions and competing alliances are creating instability in the region, with significant implications for its overall and political balance.
Türkiye’s mediation efforts deadlocked
On July 1, 2024, the foreign ministries of Ethiopia and Somalia met in Ankara, hosted by Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in an effort to mediate and de-escalate tensions between the two countries, with the goal of reaching a peaceful resolution. A second round of talks was held in early August, but these discussions have so far appeared unsuccessful. Türkiye, which maintains strong diplomatic ties with both Ethiopia and Somalia, has been actively involved in facilitating dialogue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has held separate phone conversations with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, emphasising Türkiye’s commitment to reconciliation. Despite these diplomatic efforts, no breakthrough has been achieved.
Türkiye’s interest in the region stems from its strategic geopolitical ambitions, including expanding its influence in the Horn of Africa and strengthening its role as a mediator in regional conflicts. A third round of talks is scheduled for September, but the prospects for success remain uncertain.
Somalia’s growing alliances: Türkiye and Egypt as key partners
The security agreements that Somalia has made with Türkiye and Egypt are aimed at thwarting the maritime deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Egypt and Ethiopia have long been at odds over the waters of the Nile River, a situation that has created significant political tensions. The Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement has prompted Somalia to forge new diplomatic alliances with Egypt and Türkiye, while Djibouti plays a crucial role in the affairs of the Horn of Africa by opposing this agreement.
Ethiopia currently relies on Djibouti for 90 per cent of its imports, but this situation may change if the MOU with Somaliland is realised. In that case, Ethiopia would be using the port of Berbera directly, as outlined in the agreement. This interlocking situation is escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa, with other countries increasingly becoming involved.
Additionally, the Somali parliament has approved a presidential motion to deploy military forces in Somalia for two years, a move designed to bolster security against terrorism and other emerging threats under the Türkiye-Somalia defence cooperation agreement. However, this decision comes in the wake of a recent memorandum of understanding between Somaliland and Ethiopia, raising concerns about the implication of increased Turkish military presence. Somaliland has expressed apprehension regarding the Turkish military deployment along its coastline, warning that it could heighten tensions in the region amidst these evolving alliances.
The new emerging geopolitical alliances in the Horn of Africa are likely exacerbating regional security dynamics. Somalia’s alliance with Egypt has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt, further complicating an already fraught relationship. Currently, Ethiopia and Somalia are experiencing serious political tensions, which heightens the risk of conflict in the region. As these alliances evolve, they create a complex web of rivalries and grievances, undermining efforts for stability and cooperation. The intertwining of political interests and historical animosities could lead to escalated hostilities, making the Horn of Africa a potential flashpoint for broader regional conflict.
Whether the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU goes through is yet to be seen, but even now the region is more polarised and geopolitically fragmented than it has ever seen. This deal will usher in enorMoUs political and security changes in the region in which not everyone will be happy. There are winners and losers from the scenario; Addis Ababa and Hargeisa see the success of this MOU as a consequential win for their respective quests. While Mogadishu sees this as dismemberment of its territory and total disregard for international norms. What is certain though is that geopolitical competition in the region will continue to be bigger and more assertive.
Regional Security Implications
The escalating political tensions in the Horn of Africa pose significant risks to regional security. Following an agreement with Somalia, Egypt has offered military assistance that it meant to bolster the Somali government. However, this move raises alarms about potential destabilisation in the region, as there are fears that the weapons provided could end up in the wrong hands or be accessed by terrorist organisations, given Somalia’s fragile environment and failed institutions. Such a scenario could lead to heightened security threats across the region.
Fathi Jama is a researcher with a Master’s Degree in Political Science and International Relations, specializing in the politics of the Horn of Africa and Somaliland. His research focuses on regional security, diplomacy, and international relations.
