Ethiopia has remained silent about the Ankara Declaration, which ended hostility between Ethiopia and Somalia and paved the way to discuss cooperation, including on access to the sea. No official statement has been released from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia.
However, in a weekly update on Friday, the Ministry called the Turkish-mediated negotiation “a significant breakthrough in resolving misunderstandings between the two nations.”
What Caused the Ethiopia-Somalia Tension?
The immediate trigger for the tension between Ethiopia and Somalia was the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Somaliland on January 1, 2024. Although the MoU’s details remain undisclosed, Ethiopia’s government announced that it “secured access to the sea.” Ethiopian and Somaliland news outlets reported that Somaliland would grant Ethiopia access to 20 kilometers of coastal land on a fifty-year lease in exchange for recognition as an independent state. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has since held five general elections.
Ethiopia has not yet clarified the MoU’s status following the Ankara Declaration, signed on Wednesday. Turkish President Erdogan was deeply involved in the negotiations, reportedly spending over seven hours in the negotiation room. “[You won’t leave this room until you reach a deal],” the Middle East Eye quoted Erdogan as saying, underscoring the significance he attached to the matter. Turkey maintains a strong presence in Somalia, with one of its largest military bases and ongoing training programs for Somali soldiers. Turkish investment in Somalia has been significant since 2011.
Somalia accused Ethiopia of “violating its sovereignty” by signing the MoU with Somaliland. During the seven-hour Ankara negotiation, Abiy Ahmed reportedly resisted committing to Somalia’s unity, suggesting a shift in his stance on Somaliland’s recognition. “Abiy was willing to sign a statement committing to Somalia’s independence and sovereignty, [but] he resisted any mention of ‘territorial integrity’ or ‘unity’,” the Middle East Eye reported, citing a source involved in the negotiations. Ethiopian Prime Minister has been facing mistrust and suspicion after he lost the public trust he had. The message he shared on what is now X platform when agreement was signed with Somaliland is trending again. This time as an example to demonstrate the inconsistency of the Prime Minister. At the time when the MoU was signed, he tweeted “what is to be said. We only thank God” painting a picture that his government “secured access to the sea through the deal with Somaliland.”
Reactions from Somaliland
Somaliland has responded to the recent developments. When asked about the Somaliland government’s view on the “Ankara Declaration,” Waddani Party spokesman Mohamed Farah Abdi stated, as cited in a BBC Somali report, “it has nothing to do with us [Somaliland].”
The spokesperson also commented on the fate of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland. He reportedly said that the new government will “study it and, if it is in the interest of Somaliland, it will be implemented. If it is not in our interest, it will not be pursued. We will wait and see before making a decision.”
This comes two weeks after Somaliland held a successful presidential election, which Ethiopia praised for being “free and fair.” This praise implied recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, despite the lack of formal recognition. Moreover, Ethiopia appointed an ambassador to Somaliland in August following Somalia’s military agreement with Egypt.
Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Cirro’ and Mohamed Ali Aw Abdi were sworn in as President and Vice-President of the “Republic of Somaliland” on Thursday. While potential recognition from the Trump administration may reduce the importance of Ethiopian recognition, the prospect of economic ties with Ethiopia remains vital. Somaliland’s stability offers an attractive business environment, particularly for alternative port options for Ethiopian trade.
Anger in Somalia
Multiple sources report growing anger in Somalia over the Ankara agreement. In Addition to public anger, politicians are opposing the agreement. According to sources, Hassan Ali Khayre, former Somali Prime Minister, sees the Ankara Declaration as “Betrayal of Somalia’s Sovereignty” on the part of President Hassan Sheik Mohammed.
The opposition figure, Abdirahman Andishakur, went further. He is not only opposing the agreement but also calling for the “Somali parliament to draft a motion to remove the president from office,” – according to social media sources.
Ethiopia’s peacekeeping mission will remain in Somalia after January 2025, despite Somalia’s earlier announcement that Ethiopian forces would be excluded from the new peacekeeping mission. Somalia’s commitment to providing Ethiopia with sea access for trade is another point of contention fueling public anger towards Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government.
The fate of Somalia’s October 2024 tripartite agreement with Eritrea and Egypt is uncertain following the Ankara Declaration. This agreement initially included Egypt in Somalia’s peacekeeping mission and a bilateral arrangement for deploying 5,000 Egyptian troops to Somalia, a move opposed by Ethiopia. It remains unclear if Somalia has abandoned this agreement with Egypt, but the agreement with Ethiopia suggests a potential shift in Somalia’s military alliances.
