Israel’s quest for strategic depth in the Horn of Africa through Somaliland

By Ahmet Vefa Rende

Somaliland attracts the attention of many states due to its geopolitical location. A former British colony, it borders Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia. Previously an autonomous region of Somalia, Somaliland gained its independence after 1991.

With a dominant position on the Gulf of Aden, it is near the entrance to the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, through which almost a third of the world’s maritime cargoes pass. Its coastline has made Somaliland and its neighbours Eritrea and Djibouti attractive partners for different states seeking maritime access and presence in the region. Having 460 miles of Gulf of Aden coastline means that Somaliland occupies an important position for the defence of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, as well as in the fight against piracy, terrorism and smuggling.

Israel recognises Somaliland for its own national interests and seeks to establish good relations. Lacking geopolitical strategic depth, Israel feels the need to base itself in Somaliland in order to initiate its national security from miles away and challenge the Houthi presence in Yemen. There are also economic opportunities, of course, and some benefits from increased diplomatic relations.

As a small country in the midst of the Arab world, which it sees as a potential threat, Israel has historically felt the need to provide itself with strategic depth. As was seen on 7 October, 2023, the occupation state is susceptible to armed incursion. Since then, we have seen Israel commit an ongoing genocide in Gaza and more recently turn its firepower on Lebanon to the north. Civilians have been the main victims in both.

The occupation state has thus sought to create a safe zone for its own security with strategic depth in different areas. In the Eastern Mediterranean, for example, Cyprus is at the forefront for this role being so close to Lebanon and the threat of Hezbollah, while in the Horn of Africa, Israel wants to realise similar goals in Somaliland. It is regarded as the last link in the chain in the fight against Iranian proxies, especially the Houthis in Yemen.

China is investing in ports in the region, while Turkiye is attempting to establish a base in Somalia. The UAE is trying to develop its presence in a number of countries as well, especially Somaliland. In addition to these states, the region is of great strategic importance for Israel’s national interests.

Israel’s interest in Somaliland should not be viewed solely through a security lens, though. Somaliland has a growing economy offering investment opportunities in agriculture, energy and infrastructure, among other sectors. The fact that agriculture in Somaliland stands out as subsistence farming and that the state is a food importer offers Israel an opportunity to increase its influence in the region. Its agricultural mobilisation in regions unsuitable for agriculture and its efforts to establish agricultural communities based on its own Kibbutz model could serve as leverage in obtaining a military base in Somaliland. Israel’s investments in Somaliland and possible development projects could lead to it becoming more established in the Horn of Africa and expanding its dominance over other countries in the region.

The UAE has close relations with both countries. It has a military base in Somaliland in a relationship dating back to 2017. Abu Dhabi was one of the first capitals to recognise the Republic of Somaliland, and has investments there. Moreover, the UAE trains Somaliland’s security forces. This cooperation forms the basis of the strategic partnership. In addition, Dubai-based logistics company DP World has launched a $101 million project to expand the Berbera port, which it sees as an alternative to the port in Djibouti.

The UAE normalised relations with Israel with the Donald Trump-promoted “Abraham Accords” in 2020. It has maintained those relations throughout the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians.

Sources state that the UAE has not only convinced the Somaliland government to establish the base, but has also agreed to finance it. In return, assurances were provided that Israel would recognise Somaliland and invest in the region. There is mutual benefit from the UAE’s mediation, as both Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv see the Houthis as a common enemy and believe that they can break Iran’s sphere of influence with this cooperation.

In addition to Somaliland, Yemen’s Socotra Island may also be included among the targets for Israel and the UAE to have greater strategic depth in the Horn of Africa. While the UAE had plans to dominate the island before the start of the Yemeni civil war, it was revealed in recent months that it is planning to establish a base there with Israel. According to Hebrew-language newspaper Maariv, the UAE has agreed with Israel to establish a joint military and intelligence facility in Socotra. The newspaper pointed out that such cooperation is apparent in the UAE-Israeli military base under construction on the island of Abdul Kuri, part of the Socotra island chain.

There are numerous advantages for Israel in recognising Somaliland as an independent state. These include enhancing its national security, countering regional threats, creating new economic opportunities, improving diplomatic relations and supporting democratic governance in the region. In a region where many powers are competing for a share due to its strategic location and resources, Israel is expected to enter the race through local partner Somaliland, which is excluded by many countries.