By Bharat Dogra
The news of the greatest urgency about Somalia and Somaliland today is the same as it has been for some years—the region is in the middle of a very serious humanitarian crisis brought by a combination of conflicts, climate change, severe drought, hunger and displacement.
What should cause additional concern this year is that the fund shortage for the humanitarian response has worsened—only about 12% of the budget needed for the year is currently available.
Serious as this situation is, the news headlines for the region (both Somalia and Somaliland along with Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti belong to the Horn of Africa region) are increasingly dominated by political developments including rivalry among big powers to get a stronger foothold in the region.
This region has a lot of mineral wealth, oil and gas, fisheries and other resources. However its strategic location is getting even more attention.
Seen from this perspective of sea routes that are critical from the point of view of world trade, including oil trade, Somalia and Somaliland have very significant location close to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. What has added to this are recent attacks by the Houthis from the other side of the Red Sea to disrupt certain ships as a part of their activities in support of the Palestinian cause.
In such a situation the interest of the USA in getting a military and economic base in the Horn of Africa region has increased. The same reasons can attract Israel too.
The USA already has a big and important military base in the neighboring tiny country of Djibouti (in much earlier times called French Somalia), but additional ones are welcome too. The desire to get a military base is accompanied by another desire that any main rival power should not get this (China already has a base in Djibouti).
Adding further to political hot winds is the often reported news regarding the possibility that the USA and Israel are thinking of Somaliland (and perhaps even Somalia) as a possible destination for sending a significant number of people from Gaza.
This news became strong enough for a senior minister from Somaliland to issue a response but this was later withdrawn. So this has no official confirmation yet but has been discussed a lot.
Another tension that had been building up here appears to have been resolved for now. Ethiopia having lost its reach to the sea after the secession of Eritrea was keen to lease land in Somaliland for a port, and this had led to its renewed hostility with Somalia.
However about six months back Turkey mediated an agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia as a result of which this dispute has been checked for the time being at least.
However to understand how this and other factors are likely to play out in future, some more background on this region is needed.
Italian Somalia and British Somaliland emerged from the shadow of colonial rule in 1960. British Somaliland was a protectorate of Britain but on gaining independence it chose to join the bigger former Italian Somalia so that the two could become a stronger single country, a free country.
Unfortunately, the earlier optimism did not continue for too long and after civil war conditions continuing for some time, the territory roughly of the former British protectorate separated to announce its separate identity as Somaliland in 1991.
However Somaliland could not get the recognition of either the UN or of any big power or of most countries. It has been quite desperate to get such recognition. The deal being discussed with Ethiopia for lease of coastal land, if finalized, would have brought recognition from Ethiopia, a leading country of the region known for its past hostility to Somalia.
However this deal appears to have collapsed for now. Hence one can imagine how Somaliland may be willing to go to any length to get the recognition of a big power like the USA (or of UK).
This month in April 2025 Somaliland has suffered another big reversal. The region of SSC Khatumo had earlier almost broken away from Somaliland, and whatever hopes may have existed for its rejoining Somaliland collapsed recently when in mid-April this region instead re-joined Somalia as its newest federal state or province.
This may have reduced the population of Republic of Somaliland population by almost half, reducing this to just about 3 million or so while that of Somalia may have gone up to around 20 million.
Even in the middle of increasing difficulties, Somaliland has a very resourceful supporter on its side in the form of UAE and its corporates, who are interested in the resources as well as the strategic location of this land. They lend economic and military support to Somaliland.
On the other hand, Somalia has very strong support from Turkey which again is interested in resources and strategic assets. Turkey provides economic and military support to the Federal Republic of Somalia and gets considerable control over ports and other assets.
The USA has been eyeing certain ports and air bases in Somaliland and if a desperate Somaliland strikes a deal with the USA for this as well as in a wider context of accepting expelled Palestinians, this would be a game-changer for a Somaliland in the middle of increasing difficulties and uncertainties.
On the other hand Somalia has stated that with so little recognition, Somaliland has no legal authority to lease air bases and ports, and that this right belongs only to the government of the Federal Republic of Somalia.
Somalia has also told the USA that whatever air base or port Somaliland authorities may have promised to the USA, Somalia too is willing to lease, but the USA should do this business only with the legal authorities of Somalia recognized by most countries and with a seat at the UN.
The net result of all these developments is that while it is very important to resolve all the conflicts in the region, these may increase due to the involvement of bigger powers in the tussle. Russia too is interested in the region of course and Somalia recently had high-level Russian visitors as well.
However the most violent conflict in the region following the Ethiopian invasion of year 2006 relates to the clashes of the al-Shabaab terror or rebel group, which was born in the wake of the sufferings of the people caused by the invasion, with the authorities, resulting in the assembling of a peace force by the African Union with financial support from the west. In addition there is growing alienation of Somalia’s federal government from significant regions like Punt Land and Juba Land with autonomous forces emerging here. Somaliland authorities are also facing further resistance from some more areas.
So bigger powers and resourceful foreign countries would be coming with their own self-centered agendas in this complex world of multi-sided serious crisis. It is very difficult to predict how exactly the situation will change, but clearly the greatest caution should be exercised so that a region that has already suffered so much from violent conflict should not experience an increase of such suffering. A final question—if so many rich countries are entering this region, why is there such a glaring shortfall in the budget for meeting urgent humanitarian needs?
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071, Earth without Borders, and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace.
