This week saw Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed travel to Mogadishu for a meeting with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, reciprocating the latter’s surprise visit to Addis Ababa last month. The ongoing formalities between the two come following their signing of the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, ending a full year of confrontation and tensions between the two countries that began with Ethiopia’s MoU with breakaway Somaliland.
Many see PM Abiy’s visit as the final gesture firmly establishing the formalization of relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, which had been severed since January 2024.
“We held extensive discussions on a range of areas including peace and security, economy, diplomacy and potential to build joint infrastructure. The Horn of Africa is rich in resources—fertile lands, fresh water, and human capital. Yet, as a region, we struggle to feed ourselves. This makes integration essential to achieving our shared aspirations. We have immense potential as a region that must be harnessed to achieve our collective greatness. We cannot grow in isolation, but together, we can thrive. Regional thinking and collaboration are essential, and we are ready to work with Somalia to make this a reality,” PM Abiy said in a social media post this week.
His visit indicates progress in the execution of the terms of the Ankara Declaration, and suggests that Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland has been left behind, particularly in light of an apparent lack of interest from Somaliland’s newly elected leadership.
In exchange, Somalia has dropped plans to replace Ethiopia with Egypt on the list of troop-contributing countries for the third and latest African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission within its borders. It was announced this week that Ethiopian troops will participate in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which began last month, at least on paper.
To analysts, the developments mark a tectonic shift in regional geopolitics, which, not too long ago, featured the formation of an alliance between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt. They observe the birth and dissolution of axes and alliances in the fast-changing geopolitical dynamism of the Horn of Africa is nothing new.
“The relationships between Horn of Africa governments and states has [always] been wobbly. The region’s states are friends at one point, and then enemies. Relatively, only the Ethio-Kenya relationship has continued as a stable relationship. Ethiopia and Djibouti, and Ethiopia and South Sudan are also stable. Sudan and Ethiopia, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, have seen ups and downs at various times,” says Constantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), a former AU anti-graft commissioner and a keen commentator on regional politics.
He sees the current normalization of relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa as a result of both the Ankara Declaration and uncertainty on Somaliland’s stance on the MoU.
Abdirahman Mohamed Abullahi (Irro), Somaliland’s newly elected president, has previously said his administration would review the terms of the agreement, giving Ethiopia a means to stall the deal that has been at the heart of regional tensions for the past year, according to Constantinos.
The ongoing rapprochement also nullifies Egypt’s attempts to isolate Ethiopia through Sudan and by deploying troops in Somalia, he argues.
Nonetheless, Constantinos observes that despite the stalled MoU, Somaliland still stands to gain recognition from the governments of the US and the UK. The UK’s Foreign Minister recently alluded to intentions to recognize Somaliland and Britain’s key role in officiating Somaliland’s short-lived independence following the end of colonial rule.
“Ethiopia-Somalia relations have now improved to a new level. Ethiopia is allowed to maintain its peacekeeping force in AUSSOM. PM Abiy’s visit to Mogadishu this week has several positive implications. Somalia’s destabilization is not good for Ethiopia. Regional states do not want Ethiopian forces to exit the peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The normalization has affirmed this,” said Constantinos.
However, the tripartite military agreement between El Sisi, Isayas Afwerki and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Asmara in October 2024 is still a point of concern, according to Constantinos. He notes the three also rejected Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland and vowed to protect Somalia’s sovereignty.
“The PM’s visit to Mogadishu is very positive, but it might upset Eritrea. Before the normalization with Ethiopia, Somalia reached a tripartite pact with Eritrea and Egypt. Now Somalia has re-aligned with Ethiopia and broken the Asmara tripartite agreement,” says Constantinos. “But the questions remain. Will Somalia continue as stable in the future? What impact can countries like Egypt and Eritrea, who attempted to ostracize Ethiopia by collaborating with Somalia, have in the Horn? Will they support Al-Shabaab? Will they destabilize Somalia further?”
He noted that the US recently conducted a strike on an Al-Shabaab base in Somalia, and says US foreign policy will be a decisive factor in how things play out.
“Ethiopia has made peace with Somalia. But Ethiopia needs to question what Egypt and Eritrea are going to do,” said Constantinos.
While Ethiopia’s tensions with Egypt over the GERD and the sensitivities with Somalia remain, a new round of confrontations with Asmara appears to have begun following a commentary piece published recently by former President Mulatu Teshome, who accused Eritrea of destabilizing the region.
“Regarding the recent back and forth between Ethiopia and Eritrea; what former President Mulatu Teshome wrote has weight because he is a former president. He wrote that Eritrea is the bad boy in the region. Eritrean officials replied by saying ‘we are not in this game’. But following Ethiopia’s normalization with Somalia, Eritrea might now consider also normalizing with Ethiopia. There are also other issues like Eritrea and TPLF developing a relationship, though TPLF has denied this officially,” says Constantinos.
The situation has sparked concerns of a possible military confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, fueled by factionalism and tensions in Tigray, as well as Ethiopia’s demands for Eritrean forces to withdraw from its territory.
However, Constantinos believes it will not come to war.
“Both countries suffered a lot in past wars. Neither of them can afford another war. But all players in this region are trying to make a point,” he said.
Constantinos, and other analysts, see the tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara as little more than a war of words. He urged the government to focus on internal stability and diplomatic efforts to reinstate Ethiopia as a regional power.
“Sudan and South Sudan are in conflict. There are new conflicts emerging in South Sudan. Ethiopia needs to play a stabilizing role. In order to regain such a role, Ethiopia needs to regain the moral high ground, on the façade. There might be a lot going under the radar,” says Constantinos. “Ethiopia must be the regional stabilizer. Then Ethiopia can also ensure its sea access interests.”
He noted that the MoU has cost Ethiopia dearly on the international stage, with Hassan Sheikh’s previous efforts to elicit support against the deal tarnishing Addis Ababa’s image and credibility.
Constantinos wants to see Ethiopia organize a regional and international summit on how to resolve the crisis in the region.
“Since the new AUC chair is from the Horn, he can also take part. Ethiopia must focus on organizing an international peace and security conference. It will lay the ground for regional integration,” he said.
The analyst noted that Kenya is working to assume the role of ‘regional stabilizer’, most recently by announcing peace and security operations along the Ethiopian border.
“This should be Ethiopia’s role,” said Constantinos, who argues Addis Ababa’s place as the seat of the AU, ECA, and more than 120 embassies and international organizations make it the African political and diplomatic capital.
“Ethiopia cannot handle continental issues without handling regional issues first,” he said.
Constantinos believes a summit would help present solutions for the crisis in the region, and uplift Ethiopia’s image.
“Of course, this summit must be organized independently, not only by the Ethiopian government. The AU, IGAD, and regional civil societies can be the major players in organizing this event. It is time for Ethiopia and the region to focus on the way out,” said Costantinos.
“African officials and scholars have been writing recently that Ethiopia has been growing quickly but is now turning into a failed state. The peace and security summit will reverse that narrative. The event should include the greater Horn of Africa, including the DRC conflict. Kagama is facing a lot of backlash. The UK and others canceled over one billion dollars in aid to Rwanda. Rwanda’s and Uganda’s biggest export is gold; gold that is smuggled from the conflict areas in DRC. Ethiopia can organize a peace and security summit that can solve such issues. This will also reaffirm Ethiopia’s legacy of peace keeping,” he said.
