The offer by Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf that would give Ethiopia access to the port of Tadjoura, about 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the border with Ethiopia, looks like the most serious and credible attempt to ease tensions that are threatening to engulf the Horn of Africa region (AC Vol 65 No 16, Djibouti joins fight against the Abiy-Bihi pact).
Ali Youssouf, who is a candidate to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as chair of the African Union Commission (AUC) next February, said that the arrangement would give Ethiopia access to the port as well as ‘a brand-new corridor to the northern border of Djibouti’.
The dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia over the former’s coastal access is threatening to escalate.
It started in earnest in January after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland, giving it access to 20 km of coastline in exchange for recognition of its independence from Somalia (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a ‘memorandum of misunderstanding’).
Two rounds of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, mediated by Turkey, have made no progress. The prospects of a return to the negotiating table have been dimmed by a separate defence cooperation agreement signed in August between Egypt and Somalia that has already seen weaponry transported from Egypt to Mogadishu in recent days.
On 27 August, two Egyptian aircraft landed in Mogadishu carrying arms deliveries. These, together with rumours of an impending troop deployment by Egypt, prompted a furious reaction from Abiy’s government which warned that ‘Ethiopia cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilise the region’.
Ethiopian officials say that Somalia’s deal with Cairo amounts to bad faith, accusing Somalia of ‘colluding with external actors’.
That said, Egypt’s move also underscores how Abiy has found himself isolated in the region. The Ethiopian premier has alienated most of the region’s leaders. That leaves him with little room for manoeuvre. Some analysts say that Djibouti’s offer could pave the way for a face-saving compromise, giving Ethiopia the coastal access it craves and allowing Abiy to quietly abandon the MoU with Somaliland without losing too much face.
Source: Africa Confidential
