In a surprising move, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to officially recognize Somaliland as an independent state, according to a report published by The Cradle. This unprecedented decision, revealed by former British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson and reported by media outlets such as Semafor, could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa and the maritime routes in West Asia.
Somaliland is located near the Arabian Peninsula, and Western recognition of it would provide a new strategic foothold in the war against Yemen, especially after Sanaa imposed a blockade on ships bound for Israel since October 2023. However, this move could strain U.S. relations with key regional allies such as Egypt and Turkey, both of which have strong ties with Somalia.
A Longstanding Quest for Recognition
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not yet received official recognition from any country. Nevertheless, it has managed to build a distinct political and economic identity, housing one-third of Somalia’s population and covering an area equivalent to the U.S. state of Florida. Unlike its war-torn neighbor Somalia, Somaliland enjoys relative stability, despite some armed clashes in its eastern regions since 2023.
The region holds a strategic location near the Gulf of Aden, serving as a crucial passage for ships heading to the Suez Canal and Yemen. Since the start of the war in Yemen in 2014, the UAE has sought to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa to counter the Sanaa government. In 2016, the UAE signed a $442 million deal to build a port in the Somaliland city of Berbera, which is only 260 kilometers from Yemen’s Aden.
A year later, the port was expanded to include a naval and air base, which has been used since 2018 for launching strikes inside Yemen. The military expansion in the port continues, with new aircraft hangars under construction.
Towards a Possible Normalization with Israel?
The UAE is currently working to secure an agreement between Somaliland and Israel. Since 2010, Israel has been one of the few countries to establish diplomatic ties with Somaliland, despite not officially recognizing it.
Israeli interest in the region has increased after Yemen began directly targeting Israel in response to ongoing massacres in Gaza. Israel already maintains joint intelligence and military cooperation with the UAE on the occupied Yemeni island of Socotra.
According to reports, the UAE-brokered deal includes the establishment of an Israeli military base in Somaliland in exchange for its recognition as an independent state. This military presence would allow Tel Aviv to directly respond to Yemeni attacks instead of relying on Western nations to do so.
U.S. Military Presence in the Horn of Africa
Historically, the United States has played a significant military role in the Horn of Africa. In 1993, U.S. forces invaded Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, in an attempt to overthrow the government. However, the battle, which saw the bodies of American soldiers dragged through the streets, was described by PBS as “the deadliest battle for the U.S. military since Vietnam.” A few months later, Washington completely withdrew its troops.
The U.S. military returned to Somalia in 2007 with naval operations against pirates and airstrikes against the Somali militant group Al-Shabaab. Despite these efforts, attacks on U.S. forces continued. In 2021, Trump decided to withdraw American troops from Somalia, but Biden redeployed 500 U.S. soldiers in 2022.
Despite U.S. military aid, the Somali army has failed to achieve significant gains against Al-Shabaab. In 2024, Puntland declared independence from Somalia, while the Jubaland region witnessed violent clashes that resulted in 600 Somali soldiers surrendering to Kenya.
Countering Chinese Influence in the Horn of Africa
China’s growing presence in the region has become a concern for Washington. Since 2017, China has operated its largest overseas military base in Djibouti, a neighboring country to Somaliland. Djibouti has shifted from being a Western stronghold to becoming a close partner of Beijing, supporting China on issues like Hong Kong and allowing Iranian ships to use its ports.
Washington sees the recognition of Somaliland as a tool to counter China’s influence, a strategy mentioned in the Project 2025 report, which outlines Trump’s upcoming policies. The report advocates recognizing Somaliland as a “means to strengthen U.S. influence against China in Djibouti.”
Potential Risks to U.S. Regional Relations
However, recognizing Somaliland could have significant consequences for U.S. relations in the region. Egypt, a key U.S. ally, has strong ties with Somalia due to its concerns over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. In response to Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland over the Berbera port, Egypt signed a defense pact with Mogadishu.
Likewise, Turkey—a major NATO member—views Somalia as a strategic partner. Between 2011 and 2022, Turkey invested over $1 billion in Somalia and established its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu. Ankara has also secured exclusive oil exploration rights in Somalia, and recognizing Somaliland could weaken Turkey’s influence in the region.
Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brought Ethiopian and Somali leaders together in the “Ankara Declaration,” the agreement does not prevent Ethiopia from accessing the Berbera port. However, it reduces the likelihood of Addis Ababa recognizing Somaliland as an independent state.
Potential Impact on U.S. and Israeli Interests
Recognizing Somaliland could strain U.S. relations with Egypt and Turkey, two key allies in supporting Israeli interests. Egypt has played a crucial role in facilitating Israeli trade through the Suez Canal, while Turkey continues to supply steel and essential materials to Israel. Any deterioration in relations with these countries could impact Israel, especially amid the escalating war in Gaza.
At the same time, Russia’s influence continues to expand in Africa, with Moscow building a naval base in Port Sudan and recently offering military assistance to Mogadishu against Al-Shabaab.
Amid the war in Gaza and the conflict in Yemen, Somaliland has emerged as a new battleground for global powers. Trump’s recognition of Somaliland would secure a strategic base for the UAE and Israel while bolstering U.S. efforts against China. However, this move carries significant risks, as it could lead to the loss of Egyptian and Turkish support, posing major challenges to U.S. policy in the region.
Article first published by Watan
