It follows the December 12 inauguration of Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, also known as Irro, as the new Somaliland president.
Last week’s swearing-in ceremony was attended by Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister Wu Chih-chung, leading to a protest by China, with Beijing saying it opposes the “establishment of official institutions or any form of official exchanges between Taiwan authorities and Somaliland”.
The US was also represented at Irro’s inauguration, with US ambassador to Somalia Richard Riley leading a delegation as he praised Somaliland’s “commitment to fair and credible elections and the peaceful transfer of power”.
It follows growing calls for Washington to recognise Somaliland as America prepares for Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January.
US Republican congressman Scott Perry last week introduced a bill calling on the US government to recognise Somaliland “as a separate, independent country”.
In the Project 2025 document, it called for “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti”.
“[Trump’s] team will have to get in place and do a strategic review before any such decisions are made,” Meservey said. He also noted that Mogadishu would react strongly to any such move.
John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said at least two of Trump’s more competent nominees for key national security positions – Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz – are both China “hawks”. They not only regard China as the number one peer competitor, but also as an adversary, Calabrese said.
“So, to the extent that they believe recognising Somaliland would advance US objectives to counter China in the Horn, they might stake out that position,” he said.
In Djibouti, Chinese firms have funded and built projects such as the Doraleh multipurpose port and the Djibouti free-trade zone. Beijing also opened its first overseas naval military base in Djibouti in 2017 to protect its interests and citizens in the region.
According to Guled Ahmed, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, the recognition of Somaliland was studied by the African Union back in 2005, when it was determined that it was justified and unique and would not open a Pandora’s box.
He said, from a geopolitical aspect, it will improve maritime security in the Red Sea and “become a successful democratic model for inspiration in the troubled Horn of Africa”.
Seifudein Adem, an Ethiopian global affairs specialist and a research fellow at the JICA Ogata Research Institute for Peace and Development in Tokyo, said China’s diplomacy in the region would meet headwinds should the US recognise Somaliland.
