The Somali government has drawn a red line in its dealings with Ethiopia, insisting that Addis Ababa’s controversial pact with Somaliland must be scrapped before any dialogue can proceed. The January 2024 deal grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastline—an arrangement Mogadishu views as a brazen affront to its sovereignty.
“Somalia welcomes the regional leaders’ efforts to maintain peace, security, and stability in the HoA,” said Ilyas Ali Hassan, Somalia’s ambassador to Tanzania, in a carefully worded statement posted to his X account. “However, its position remains unchanged: unless the January 1, 2024, MoU is declared null and void and Somalia’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity must be respected.”
Ambassador Ilyas’s declaration came hours after Kenyan President William Ruto proposed a mediation effort involving Kenya and Uganda. The initiative, announced during a press conference in Tanzania, aims to broker talks between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Yet, Mogadishu’s position leaves little room for compromise.
For Somalia, the stakes are existential. Allowing Ethiopia to formalize its agreement with Somaliland—a self-declared independent region that Somalia considers an integral part of its territory—would set a dangerous precedent in Mogadishu’s view. Officials have repeatedly stressed that the agreement violates Somalia’s territorial integrity and undermines efforts to preserve its unity.
The maritime agreement has become a flashpoint for regional tensions. Somaliland, which declared independence in 1991 but remains unrecognized internationally, entered the deal to bolster its bid for formal recognition. Ethiopia, a landlocked nation seeking access to the Red Sea, saw the agreement as a strategic opportunity to establish a naval base and commercial port.
Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi has previously ruled out negotiations with Ethiopia unless the deal is nullified. “This reckless move undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity,” Fiqi said in a recent statement. “We will not engage in talks until Ethiopia reverses course and respects Somalia’s sovereignty.”
Turkey, a key player in the Horn of Africa, has attempted to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia, although it has failed. Ankara hosted two rounds of indirect talks in July and August 2024 but indefinitely postponed a third round scheduled for September, citing the complexity of the negotiations. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is now pursuing separate discussions with both sides to bridge the divide.
International actors, including the United States, the European Union, China, and the African Union, have urged Ethiopia to respect Somalia’s sovereignty. Egypt, who has emerged as a staunch ally of Mogadishu, has also weighed in, delivering military aid to Somalia and signing a security pact.
Mogadishu has sought to rally international support, leveraging its alliances with Egypt and Eritrea—both historical rivals of Ethiopia—to counter Addis Ababa’s ambitions. This alignment has further complicated an already volatile regional landscape.
Despite intense diplomatic pressure from Mogadishu, the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement remains in limbo. Ethiopian authorities have yet to implement the deal, a delay Somali officials attribute to their persistent lobbying efforts.
