By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
On November 13, 2024, Somaliland conducted its presidential election, an event that has drawn attention across Africa. Despite the political landscape being dominated by clan-based affiliations, the peaceful electoral process and the commendable level of media freedom stood out as notable achievements. Yet, while this democratic display reflects aspirations for a brighter future, the official results have yet to be released, casting a shadow of anticipation over the region. Beneath this veneer of progress, deeper complexities loom, threatening to shift the delicate balance of power across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor.
A Legacy of Self-Determination Meets Modern Strife
For over three decades, Somaliland has projected a narrative of peace and political autonomy since declaring independence from the Somali Federal Government. However, the path to international recognition has remained elusive, further complicated by recent challenges. In 2023, former President Muse Bihi, facing rising political pressure, made a drastic decision to launch a military offensive against Las Anod City. This act, aimed at consolidating power amid increasing resistance, met fierce opposition and culminated in defeat at the hands of the SSC militia. The failed offensive not only eroded Bihi’s credibility but also deepened political and economic distress.
This military blunder strained Bihi’s network of alliances, including support from key regional players such as Djibouti. The aftermath has left Somaliland grappling with a fragile peace and uncertain prospects for its long-desired recognition. Economically weakened and politically isolated, the breakaway republic faces questions about its capacity to maintain stability in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
The Ciro Factor: A Catalyst for Change or Continuation?
If Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, widely known as Ciro, secures victory, the regional dynamic could shift dramatically. Ciro’s reputation for diplomacy suggests an inclination to reopen stalled negotiations with the Somali Federal Government—a bold move that might signal a new chapter in Somaliland-Somalia relations. However, such a shift carries implications for regional heavyweights like Ethiopia. During Bihi’s tenure, Somaliland and Ethiopia signed a pivotal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), strengthening ties but creating tension with Mogadishu. Ciro’s administration might deprioritize this MOU while focusing on urgent domestic issues, though fully abandoning it is unlikely.
This potential change in focus could trigger diplomatic recalibrations, not just with Ethiopia but across the Horn of Africa. The extent of these shifts depends on Ciro’s ability to balance internal stabilization efforts with regional commitments, all while maintaining Somaliland’s pursuit of recognition on the international stage.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud: Navigating Strategy Amid Survival
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia finds himself at a crossroads. The federal government’s territorial control has weakened compared to the preceding Farmaajo administration, raising concerns about Somalia’s trajectory. Critics argue that Mohamud’s strategy lacks the coherence required to manage internal challenges while engaging effectively on the regional stage. His recent alliance with Eritrea and Egypt in Asmara – intended to counterbalance Ethiopian influence – adds another layer of complexity. This coalition risks entangling Somalia in external power plays that prioritize strategic interests over national stability.
Observers caution that without a strategic pivot, Mogadishu could become ensnared in geopolitical rivalries that undermine its sovereignty and further fragment the state.
Ciro’s Prospective Path: Reconciliation Before Retaliation
If Ciro assumes leadership, Somaliland could pivot towards pragmatic reconciliation. Analysts believe his initial focus will be on addressing domestic conflicts, particularly with the SSC, and fostering inter-clan harmony. Such a strategy could create a fertile ground for renewed engagement with the Somali Federal Government. However, the true test will be whether Ciro’s efforts can bridge local aspirations and the larger regional context.
Ethiopia, keen to maintain its strategic foothold, may press Ciro to adhere to established commitments. Meanwhile, Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh may take a cautious stance, assessing how Ciro navigates the intricate political dynamics of the Horn before realigning any strategic interests.
Peacekeeping Mission: Ethiopia’s Exclusion and Somalia’s Security Gamble
Amidst these political shifts, the upcoming peacekeeping mission in Somalia is generating both hope and skepticism. There is widespread expectation that Ethiopia will be excluded from this mission, a decision that has sparked debate over whether it aligns with Somalia’s best security interests. Ethiopia has historically played a significant role in regional peacekeeping efforts, contributing to counterterrorism operations and stabilizing areas plagued by insurgencies. Its exclusion could challenge the mission’s effectiveness, particularly in containing terrorist threats such as Al-Shabaab, while Somalia continues to build a national army capable of asserting control over its entire territory.
Critics argue that sidelining Ethiopia may risk undermining the mission’s objectives. The primary reason behind this exclusion appears to be the contentious Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which has strained relations between Ethiopia and the Somali Federal Government. However, for Somalia to pursue a broader and more secure strategy, it must look beyond the MOU. The disagreement, while significant, could be mitigated if both nations engage in meaningful dialogue aimed at resolving the tension. Constructive discussions could pave the way for a mutually acceptable solution, ensuring that the MOU does not become a stumbling block that compromises the broader security mission.
Relying solely on the MOU as justification for excluding Ethiopia risks gambling with the mission’s success. Somalia must recognize that regional cohesion and collaborative peacekeeping efforts are crucial to achieving long-term stability. Addressing the MOU through diplomatic channels could help bridge divides, strengthen regional security cooperation, and ensure the mission meets its goals without leaving Somalia vulnerable to insurgent threats or prolonged instability.
A Diplomatic Balancing Act: Local Ties Over Distant Echoes
The prospect of reunifying Somaliland and Somalia rests on the diplomatic acumen of Mogadishu’s leadership. To chart a constructive path forward, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must strengthen partnerships with key regional players – Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti – to fortify alliances based on mutual respect and shared goals. Building a network of regional allies could provide a stronger foundation than relying on distant powers whose interests often conflict with regional needs. Elevating dialogue that resonates in the capitals of Nairobi, Addis Ababa, and Djibouti – rather than relying on echoes from foreign corridors – could redefine Somalia’s regional influence and strategic standing.
A New Dawn for Negotiation and Unity
This period of political transition presents a pivotal opportunity for Somalia – a chance to rekindle negotiations based on mutual respect, unity, and regional cooperation. The recalibration of ties between Somaliland and Somalia, under leadership that prioritizes diplomacy rooted in local partnerships, could become a model for sustainable peace. By embedding foreign policy within authentic partnerships across the Horn of Africa, Somalia may not only protect its hard-won progress but also foster hope for a future that transcends historical divides.
However, many experts remain skeptical about President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership. In the past two years, his tenure has been marked by what critics describe as inept governance, risking the gains painstakingly secured over the last seven years. A new leadership in Somaliland, if helmed by Ciro, may offer Mogadishu an opportunity to revive stalled negotiations and mend diplomatic ties. To leverage this moment, Mohamud must deescalate tensions with Ethiopia and prioritize diplomacy over alliances driven by illusion. Otherwise, Somalia risks exacerbating its vulnerabilities and undermining its aspirations for regional unity and resilience.
The writer can be reached with the following phone number : +251900644648
