The growing discontent with the Somaliland President Muse Bihi’s policies and his declining popularity among the public has brought about a new political climate in the breakaway region.
This shift in public sentiment has presented a unique opportunity for Bihi’s main political rival, Abdirahman Irro, the leader of the opposition party, Wadani to make significant inroads in the upcoming presidential election.
Irro has been a vocal critic of Bihi’s policies for years, relentlessly exposing his hawkish policies including the months-long bloody conflict in the eastern Sool region and his government’s abuses of power.
Despite being subjected with constant police harassment and teargas during several anti Bihi protests he led, Irro’s popularity has continued to grow.
Recent polls by local media outlets show that the opposition leader’s approval rating has surged, while Bihi’s hit an all-time low. Many believe that Bihi’s declining popularity has paved the way for Irro’s political ascendancy.
It is speculated that Muse Bihi Abdi, recognizing the growing threat posed by the opposition leader, is resorting to supporting a candidate more likely to split the opposition vote.
Muse Bihi is attempting to co-opt Abdikarim Ahmed Moge, an influential member of the Wadani party and the current Mayor of Hargeisa, in order for him to abandon his party. Bihi is working on having Moge become Chairman of Kulmiye and back him to become his Presidential Candidate as Muse attempts to weaken rival’s vote in the upcoming elections.
In any case, Bihi’s decision to back an alternative candidate will be a significant indicator of his assessment of the current political climate.
HIGH-STAKES ELECTIONS
The upcoming presidential election in Somaliland will be a crucial turning point for the region, with the potential to bring about real change in its political landscape.
The opposition continues to mobilize supporters and build a grassroots movement.
Meanwhile, Bihi’s administration has been grappling with the challenges of a declining economy and the impact of the ongoing bloody war in Laasaanod city which killed over 200 people and displaced more than 200,000 civilians.
MULTIPLYING CRISIS
he ongoing conflict in Laasaanod city has been a major cause for concern in the international community, leading to increased pressure on Somaliland’s president to bring an end to the conflict by withdrawing troops and conducting fresh elections.
However, the crisis have also resulted in a significant strain on the Somaliland’s relations with old allies such as Ethiopia, who have been pressuring both sides to reach a peaceful resolution.
At the heart of the conflict in Laasanood, which includes the SSC-Khatumo’s declaration of reunification with Somalia and succession from Somaliland, there are other major issues exacerbating the crisis.
President Bihi’s decision to extend his term in office by two years has also caused a great deal of controversy and criticism from opposition leaders and international observers. They argue that this move undermines the democratic process in Somaliland and could set a negative precedent for other leaders in the region to follow.
Despite these criticisms, Bihi has remained defiant in his position, rejecting calls to abandon his extension and instead suggesting a military solution to the conflict.
Meanwhile, experts believe that this has only served to further worsen Somaliland’s relations with its former allies, including Ethiopia, who have traditionally been strong supporters of the breakaway state.
THE TURNING POINT
The tide of public opinion in Somaliland has been turning against President Bihi in recent months, with many expressing dissatisfaction with the state of the enclave’s economy and its handling of the eastern Sool region’s conflict.
The opposition is capitalizing on the shift which created a unique opportunity for their leader who has been a thorn in Bihi’s side for years, using his social media platforms and the local media to expose corruption and other wrongdoing by the Somaliland government.
His relentless activism has earned him a massive following, and he has become a symbol of hope for many in the region who are disillusioned with the current regime.
While Bihi’s grip on power remains strong, the erosion of his public support is a worrying sign for the administration.
The war in Laasaanod has been a major drain on the Somaliland’s resources, and many are beginning to question the wisdom of their government’s aggressive domestic policy.
For Irro, the recent shift in public sentiment is a sign that his message is resonating with more and more people.
He has promised to take on corruption and restore democracy to Somaliland, and his vision has struck a chord with many in Somaliland who are hungry for change.
RISK OF SANCTIONS
The persistent resistance by the Somaliland President to resolve the conflict has led to warning from international diplomats over risks of possible sanctions.
The global community has been voicing their unease about the ongoing conflict and has consistently urged all parties involved to adhere to the ceasefire, enable unrestricted access for humanitarian aid, de-escalate, and engage in peaceful and productive dialogue.
Diplomats have also called on President Bihi to withdraw his troops from Laasanood to create room for negotiations between the warring factions, a call that the breakaway region’s leader has subsequently pushed back and continues to ignore.
Observers have warned President Bihi that his continued defiance to the international partners’ appeals to end the bloody conflict amidst mounting pressure could result in severe repercussions, a scenario which could leave Abdirahman Irro as the only viable replacement for the beleaguered Colonel-turned President, potentially handing the opposition leader an opportunity to succeed him without facing any considerable challenges.
