The completion of political associations’ vetting process and handing over 10 political associations and 3 political parties, 13 in total to the National Election Commission has made many people think pragmatically and agree holding political associations election before the presidential one. Based on the believe that the president intransigence (maro-ku-dheg) to accept holding presidential election first, for many, this political association’s election is short-cut to end the protracted political dispute over elections. However, the practicality and inherent fault lines associated with holding political associations election are rarely thought about.
In the following points, I summarize 10 reasons that proves the inherent risks stored in pushing for political associations’ election and postponing the presidential one will be outline.
1. Imagine the political associations’ election held in few months with the 13th contestants. Imagine the turnout was good and around 1 million citizens casted their votes. It is obvious the 1 million votes will be distributed to the 13 contestants. It is also obvious that the 10 contestants who fail will have more votes than the 3 winners. So, if the three winners who become national parties get total of around 30%-40% of the total votes, does that mean they have the trust of the majority of the people? Is that fair, even if the 10 failed contestants accept the result?
2. Imagine again the political associations’ election is held and the 13 contestants compete. We all know each of these 13 contestants is getting votes from the clans that are associated with them, each clans trying to get their political party. So, in reality, 3 clans will win and 10 clans will lose. Do you think 10 clans will compromise for the 3 clans that win? What about if those who lose align and reject the results, especially if the election is not credible, free and fair? More than that, what do you think if those 3 winners are from the central clan (Isaaq) and those in the corners lose, believing that their votes were rigged or the election process was not free, fair and transparent? How much damage will Somaliland face and how long will it take to recover from? Add to this, that the current government is not popular and there is grave division and political polarization.
3. If the presidential election which was scheduled before the political associations’ one in sequence is postponed and existing national political parties are deprived of their right to compete for presidency 2 times in their 10 year legal term, how fair are we? Why are we campaigning for the political associations if we accept those existing do not have the right to run for their rightful presidential election? Why this double-standard? Moreover, if we accept that this president pushes for political associations’ election just before the presidential election, are we planning this to re-occur after 10 years, being in the same situation, where president has the chance to eliminate his competitors a little while before the presidential election? Is this sustainable or are we targeting and envying only current opposition political parties?
4. There is no any election in the world where elections are held only for the competition of political associations and parties. Political parties are screened in the world through established democratic elections where citizens elect their representatives either in the parliament or local councils. The direct election of only political associations, with the aim of selecting the 3 top competitors is something new to the world. The 13 contestants will compete in the same level of presidential election and will spent too much money and efforts only to quality to become a political party that has the right to compete in national and local politics.
5. The assumption that both the political associations’ election and the presidential one will be held within 9 months is illusion.It is not, by any means, possible to hold two elections with such magnitude within few months. In addition, even if they can be held, there is no logic or rationale that can justify two elections in such short and it doesn’t make sense except for the president who wants to reshape the political landscape for his interest and maybe one or two presidential aspirants out of the 10 leaders of political associations who are betting to quality to presidential candidate. The question is, can the Somaliland people whose livelihoods have been destroyed by the covid-19 and the prolonged drought bear two elections? Do these so called “elections” deserve so much resources, efforts and struggle? And what are the changes that these elections will bring to the life of the ordinary citizen? Elections are just means for leaders to rise to power, not the aim or goal of a nation.
6. The political associations’ election will not change anything about the outstanding political stalemate. Only presidential election that either renews for the current president or brings new leader can dramatically solve the escalated conflict. Elections are held to renew social contract and that is why some countries call for early election, just to renew the citizens trust and confidence in their leaders. Current conflict is over the presidency, not the political associations. That conflict will continue even after the political associations’s election because everyone knows that the two rival parties, Kulmiye and Waddani party will retain their status as political parties.
7. The political associations’ election, even if it happens peacefully, is paving the way for the current president to remain in office for minimum of 2 years because there are no mechanisms that are compelling him to hold the elections.
8. Somaliland cannot bear current Somaliland government whose legitimacy is contested and clinging to power through disputed term extension. This government has lost the trust of many credible international partners and it has been labelled as “transitional” or “caretaker” to say the least, while many projects were cancelled or blocked. And it is not likely to regain the lost trust without political agreement with opposition. International partners made their calculations. The current government is not based on wide trust from the people because the two opposition parties have 63% of the recently elected House of Representatives and 5 Mayors out of the 6 regional capitals. Therefore, Somaliland cannot continue to be isolated for a longer period. On the other hand, the presidential election can restore trust and renew relationships when the social contract with citizens is also renewed.
9. There are lot of uncertainties associated with holding political associations first. Have you thought about what will happen if Kulmiye party falls down in the political associations’ election? What will happen? Will the country be ruled by someone without political party? Indeed, this issue among others, indicates why we need constitutional review. In fact, Waddani party should have ruled the country today according to the democratic systems. In a parliamentary democracy, the party with majority votes in the parliament is asked to form the government. If Waddani and UCID became allies, they should have ruled the country today as they have 63% of the parliament (52 MPs out of 82). It is the presidential system that gave this unpopular minority Kulmiye party to rule the country today. But in reality, President Bihi is lacking the empirical legitimacy on the ground especially when his term ended. International partners are aware of that fact and therefore advised him to at least, forge political settlement with the opposition to set clear roadmap for the elections.
10. Lastly but not the least, there is no law for the political associations’ election. Two laws have to be amended to separate the local councils and political associations elections and nothing can be done without political agreement with the opposition who enjoy strong support from the majority. But the presidential election has all laws in place and its budget was included even in 2022. The National Election Commission has fixed date only for the presidential election because they do not have governing laws for the associations election that detaches it from the local councils election.
Conclusion
Without presidential election, political conflict will escalate. Political associations election is just anti-pain, not antibiotic to the core problem which is about the leadership of the country whose term has ended. The prolonging conflict is polarizing the political landscape and the government’s unwise use of force, intimidation and mass arrests is contributing to the division within the society. Somaliland cannot bear current Somaliland government whose legitimacy is contested and clinging to power through disputed term extension. This government has lost the trust of many credible international partners and it has been labelled as “transitional” or “caretaker” to say the least, while many projects were cancelled or blocked. And it is not likely to regain the lost trust without political agreement with opposition. International partners made their calculations. The current government is not based on wide trust from the people because the two opposition parties have 63% of the recently elected House of Representatives and 5 Mayors out of the 6 regional capitals. Therefore, Somaliland cannot continue to be isolated for a longer period. On the other hand, the presidential election can restore trust and renew relationships when the social contract with citizens is also renewed.
1. There are lot of uncertainties associated with holding political associations first. Have you thought about what will happen if Kulmiye party falls down in the political associations’ election? What will happen? Will the country be ruled by someone without political party? Indeed, this issue among others, indicates why we need constitutional review. In fact, Waddani party should have ruled the country today according to the democratic systems. In a parliamentary democracy, the party with majority votes in the parliament is asked to form the government. If Waddani and UCID became allies, they should have ruled the country today as they have 63% of the parliament (52 MPs out of 82). It is the presidential system that gave this unpopular minority Kulmiye party to rule the country today. But in reality, President Bihi is lacking the empirical legitimacy on the ground especially when his term ended. International partners are aware of that fact and therefore advised him to at least, forge political settlement with the opposition to set clear roadmap for the elections.
2. Lastly but not the least, there is no law for the political associations’ election. Two laws have to be amended to separate the local councils and political associations elections and nothing can be done without political agreement with the opposition who enjoy strong support from the majority. But the presidential election has all laws in place and its budget was included even in 2022. The National Election Commission has fixed date only for the presidential election because they do not have governing laws for the associations election that detaches it from the local councils election.
Conclusion
Without presidential election, political conflict will escalate. Political associations election is just anti-pain, not antibiotic to the core problem which is about the leadership of the country whose term has ended. The prolonging conflict is polarizing the political landscape and the government’s unwise use of force, intimidation and mass arrests is contributing to the division within the society.
